HIV Transmission Rates in the United States, 2006-2008



David R Holtgrave*, 1, H. Irene Hall 2, Joseph Prejean 2
1 Department of Health, Behavior & Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
2 Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, USA


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© Holtgrave et al.; Licensee Bentham Open.

open-access license: This is an open access article licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the work is properly cited.

* Address correspondence to this author at the Department of Health, Behavior & Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 624 N Broadway, Suite 280, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA; Tel: 410 502 4076; E-mail: dholtgrave@jhsph.edu


Abstract

National HIV incidence for a given year x [I(x)] equals prevalence [P(x)] times the transmission rate [T(x)]. Or, simply rearranging the terms, T(x) = [I(x)/P(x)]*100 (where T(x) is the number of HIV transmissions per 100 persons living with HIV in a given year). The transmission rate is an underutilized measure of the speed at which the epidemic is spreading. Here, we utilize recently updated information about HIV incidence and prevalence in the U.S. to estimate the national HIV transmission rate for 2006 through 2008, and present a novel method to express the level of uncertainty in these estimates. Transmission rate estimates for 2006 through 2008 are as follows (respectively): 4.39 (4.01 to 4.73); 4.90 (4.49 to 5.28); and 4.06 (3.70 to 4.38). Although there are methodological challenges inherent in making these estimates, they do give some indications that the U.S. HIV transmission rate is at a historically low level.

Keywords: HIV, transmission rate, epidemiology, mathematical modeling, United States, evaluation..